Info sought on Great Lakes levels' effect

Toledo Blade

Envision the future of the Great Lakes.

Do you see them continuing to be used for shipping and commerce?

For sailing? Fishing? Pleasure boating? Duck hunting? Birding? Sunsets and beach walks?

No matter how they're used, lake levels come into play.

On Wednesday, from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. at the University of Toledo's Lake Erie Center on Bayshore Road in Oregon, the International Joint Commission wants to hear anecdotes from area residents about how changing water levels have affected their lives.

The immediate task at hand is gathering comments for its Upper Great Lakes study, which began 20 months ago. That project has examined reasons for the declines in water levels of Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron - and the interplay those drops have had with declines in western Lake Erie, the warmest, shallowest, and most biologically productive part of the lakes.

In the big picture, though, the commission wants to know what the public views as a priority for the lakes as the Earth's climate warms.

Lake levels are expected to plunge over the next few decades. Scientists believe this region could be among the hardest hit by climate change.

Although more rain is expected, the net loss of water is expected to be greater as nights get warmer and wintertime evaporation kicks into high gear.

The lakes evaporate more during the winter than the summer, because the difference between air and water temperature is greater. A freeze seals off the evaporation, but those are expected to occur later or be more infrequent.

"Climate change adaptation is exactly what we're doing," said John Nevin, commission spokesman. "We want to set in place triggers for what to do."

The commission, of course, can't stop what's in store for the region in terms of climate.

But it's been looking at the rate in which it releases water from its two main control points, the Soo Locks in Sault Ste. Marie, Mich., and the Moses-Saunders Dam in upstate New York.

"From what we know about climate change, do we want to hold more water back?" Mr. Nevin asked.

The commission also has been looking into the flow rate of the St. Clair River north of Detroit.

The St. Clair is a shallow, narrow stream by Great Lakes standards, a tight squeeze for ships that traverse between Lake St. Clair and Lake Huron.

Based on hydrological work it paid a consultant to do, a Canadian citizens group called the Georgian Bay Association believed the river had been losing water faster than it should have because of scarring to the riverbed from a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dredging operation from 1956 to 1962.

Mary Muter, the association's vice president for environment, told a group of reporters touring the St. Clair last April that the level is no doubt impacted by the changing climate. But she said that still doesn't explain what appears to be a rapid flow of water from the river.

In 2007, the group claimed the St. Clair River was losing 2.5 billion gallons of water a day, three times more than it previously thought. Its consulting group, W.F. Baird & Associates Coastal Engineers, received $200,000 for its work.

Today's shipping vessels need 27 feet of water in the St. Clair and all other parts of the Great Lakes shipping channel for safe travel, according to Scott Thieme, chief of Great Lakes hydraulics and hydrology for the Corps.

He told reporters on that same tour that he wasn't convinced erosion had been exacerbated by the dredging.

Same goes for Frank Quinn, a retired hydrologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who has been studying lake levels since the 1960s. He said the levels have been prone to 30-year cycles, although he and others believe they could remain suppressed and drop more because of climate change. more